Monday Night Football: Ravens vs. Chiefs, 8:15 p.m. | TV: ESPN

Monday Night Football: Ravens vs. Chiefs, 8:15 pm.

Monday Night Football: Ravens vs. Chiefs, 8:15 pm.


Monday Night Football: Ravens vs. Chiefs, 8:15 pm. | TV: ESPN

Betting the NFL is complicated, and I tell you this despite going 3-0 in my bets on Sunday. My Monday Night Football Pick:

The Pick: Chiefs +3.5 (-110): Betting the NFL is complicated, and I tell you this despite going 3-0 in my bets on Sunday. There’s so much action on NFL games that sportsbooks devote an ungodly amount of time and energy to nailing every aspect of their lines, making it exceedingly difficult to find an edge you can exploit. That’s why sometimes you don’t need math and just some common sense.
When you’re getting points with Patrick Mahomes, take the points.
Yes, Baltimore is a very good team, and it has its own outstanding quarterback in Lamar Jackson. The Ravens could easily win this game and might go on to win the Super Bowl this year. But we’re talking about Patrick Mahomes here. And he’s getting points. The Chiefs have been underdogs with Mahomes as their starter six times, and they’ve gone 5-0-1 against the spread. The lone push was their thrilling 54-51 loss to the Rams on Monday Night Football last season. As fantastic as Lamar Jackson is, the Ravens are only 4-7 ATS when favored at home with him at QB.
Monday Night Football: Ravens vs. Chiefs, 8:15 pm.

Monday Night Football: Ravens vs. Chiefs, 8:15 pm.

Don’t overthink this one. It might not win, but it won’t be because you were wrong.

Key Trend: The Chiefs are 12-5-1 ATS in their last 18 road games.
Here’s what SportsLine is saying about the game: The SportsLine projection model has simulated the Monday Night Football matchup 10,000 times and is overwhelmingly leaning one way.
NFL
Ravens vs. Chiefs, 8:15 p.m | TV: ESPN
The Pick: Over 55 (-110) — 
Listen, with a limited slate of games tonight, we might as well double-dip (and then triple and quadruple-dip) on Monday Night Football. Let’s attack the total as well by expecting this game to be as fun as it looks like it’ll be on paper. When these two teams met last season, the score was 33-28. Patrick Mahomes threw for 374 yards and three touchdowns and did so despite Kansas City not having Tyreek Hill available. Tonight the Ravens will be without Tavon Young in the secondary, and you don’t ever want to be thin in the secondary against Mahomes.
Monday Night Football: Ravens vs. Chiefs, 8:15 pm.

Monday Night Football: Ravens vs. Chiefs, 8:15 pm.

The Ravens, meanwhile, are going against a Chiefs defense that was bad against the run last year and doesn’t look any better against it this year. Through two weeks of the season, the Chiefs rush defense ranks 27th in the NFL in DVOA. That’s good news for the Ravens offense. This game could easily be the back-and-forth touchdown fest we’re all hoping for.

🔒 SportsLine Pick of the Day: Since today is so light on games, we have a pick for you on a game that will be played before tomorrow’s newsletter is sent out. The SportsLine Projection Model is heavily favoring one side of the Astros vs. Twins Wild-Card Round game on Tuesday at 2 p.m. ET. SportsLine subscribers can get picks for that game, and for every other MLB game Tuesday, here.

 

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