WEEK 5 NFL FANTASY RankingsDFS HELPER FROM FANTASY EXPERT JACOB GIBBS
Week 5 NFL Fantasy Rankings DFS pro Jacob Gibbs has you covered with everything to know if building lineups in Week 5.
If you’re working on DFS lineups for this weekend’s games, you NEED to see what SportsLine’s highly-rated expert Jacob Gibbs has to say. Gibbs’ Fantasy football draft rankings were the seventh-most accurate in the nation in 2019, per FantasyPros, and he is back with his exclusive NFL DFS Helper for SportsLine users.
Gibbs is a data-driven Daily Fantasy Sports specialist who’s never had a losing season in NFL. Previously an analyst at numberFire, Jacob got his start in NBA DFS six years ago, turning a $25 deposit into nearly $3,000 his first season. Gibbs crushed NFL season last year, cashing around 62 percent of the time in cash games and nearly 50 percent of the time in tournaments.
Last season, Gibbs projected big-time breakouts for Lamar Jackson, Chris Godwin, and Dalvin Cook. He also identified Darren Waller as the top late-round tight end.
Now, Gibbs has analyzed every Fantasy-relevant player’s Week 5 outlook and come up with stunning projections.
One player Gibbs is especially high on in Week 5: New York WR Darius Slayton. Slayton is priced at just $4,800 on DraftKings, but Gibbs has him finishing as the 23rd-highest scoring wide receiver on the slate.
Gibbs also is calling for a WR you aren’t even thinking about to score over 25 or even 30 DraftKings points! This player could be the difference between winning BIG or going home with nothing.
These links should help point you in the right direction, but feel free to reach out to me on Twitter if you have any further questions for Week 5! I do my best to check DM’s, but if you don’t get a response right away, tweeting at me is probably the move. Good luck this weekend everybody!
This slate is a lot more wide open from a roster building perspective than the past two. There are multiple viable punt options at QB and WR, which will encourage people to pay up at the TE position more than we’d see on a traditional week. I’d expect the most common cash game roster construction to involve less salary spent at QB and WR than usual, with at least two of Ezekiel Elliott, Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Mike Davis, and George Kittle rostered together.
With no clear cash game construction standing out, finding direct pivots isn’t going to be as easy this week. Here are a few angles that I am exploring in tournament builds, though:
Kansas City passing game stacks brought back with Darren Waller:
CEH projects to be by far the most popular member of Kansas City’s offense in Week 5, and for good reason. However, there is a realistic outcome where we see a five touchdown day from Mahomes with none of the scores going to CEH. In that scenario, lineups stacking Mahomes and his underpriced pass-catchers and fading CEH will gain clear leverage on the field.
Kansas City doesn’t necessarily need the Raiders to put points on the board to finish with four-plus passing touchdowns in this spot, but that is the most likely way for Andy Reid to remain aggressive in attacking through the air. Darren Waller has 10-catch potential in this matchup, and you can really differentiate your lineups by using both Kelce and Waller together.
Dallas passing game stacks brought back with Evan Engram and/or Darius Slayton
Here’s some groundbreaking advice for you: stack one of the highest projected scoring games on the slate. In all seriousness, I don’t think Dak and his pass-catchers are going to see the ownership that they should, in spite of three-straight slate-breaking weeks. And while I agree with the consensus that the most-likely way for this game to play out is for the Cowboys to ride Zeke while playing with a lead against a Giants offense that has struggled to piece any successful drives together this season, it’s possible that the ineptitude of Dallas’ defense will counteract that. If the Giants are able to find Slayton on a deep strike early in the game, or if Dallas’ offense takes a few drives to find their footing (as we’ve seen in three-straight games), we could see a more aggressive downfield passing attack than expected.
The most popular plays in this game will likely be Ezekiel Elliott, Darius Slayton, Evan Engram, and Daniel Jones, and I’d expect those players to be used in lineups together at a fairly high rate because they are somewhat correlated as opposing rushing-passing options. I’m fine sprinkling in New York pass catchers as bring-back options, but the idea here is to mostly avoid the Zeke and Jones ownership.
My favorite GPP Dallas stacks in order:
If there are any players or situations that you’re especially curious about and I don’t hit on in the detail that I usually would, feel free to hit me up on Twitter. I’m glad to expand on it if I didn’t cover it here, and will find the time to get to any questions before tomorrow morning. As always, thanks for reading, and good luck this Sunday!
Week 5 DraftKings Main Slate Tiers:
Tier 1 — Cash Game Considerations
Teddy Bridgewater ($5,900), Lamar Jackson ($7,900), Daniel Jones ($5,400)
Teddy — Teddy B is currently pacing for a career-high in rushing. He’s already doubled his rushing production from 2019 in one fewer game. I’m not sure if that is something we should expect to continue going forward, but it would add an exciting element to his Fantasy game. Bridgewater’s Panthers are implied for 25.5 points in one of the five games with an over/under above 53 points, and his is the only game among that bunch that has a spread below six points. There is some serious shootout potential here as Bridgewater takes on a Falcons defense that has allowed 30, 30, 40, and 38 points in their four games this season. Atlanta is near the bottom of the NFL in pressure rate, and Bridgewater’s receivers should be open with regularity against an overmatched Atlanta secondary. All signs point towards Bridgewater being one of the strongest per-dollar QB plays on the slate.
Jackson — The results haven’t been quite what we hoped for from Jackson to this point, but he has just missed touchdowns on several deep balls to Marquise Brown and Mark Andrews, whether due to poor throws, drops, or his receiver being brought down at the one-yard line. There’s still a lot of meat on the bone for Jackson, and I am more than willing to take him at a discounted price tag and ownership rate against Cincinnati’s defense if I can find the salary to get up to him.
Jones — I hope to not have to get all the way down to Jones, as he has been a wildly unpredictable player on a game-by-game basis to this point in his career. New York’s offense has looked atrocious, but they couldn’t get much better of a matchup in Week 5. Dallas’ defense has allowed Matt Ryan, Russell Wilson, Baker Mayfield, and Jarvis Landry to combine for 12 passing touchdowns over the past three weeks. This will be a stark contrast to what Jones has had to deal with to this point in the season:
Tier 2 — Preferred Tournament Options
Patrick Mahomes ($7,700), Joe Burrow ($6,000)
Tier 1 — Cash Game Locks
Mike Davis ($6,400)
Davis — Davis faces an Atlanta Falcons defense that funnels underneath targets to running backs and tight ends. The Panthers haven’t really targeted their tight ends under the new regime, but they have peppered Mike Davis with dump-offs. With Reggie Bonnafon out, Davis could play 80 percent of the snaps and handle 20-plus touches in an awesome matchup and game script. From a workload and game environment standpoint, it doesn’t get much better than Mike Davis’ Week 5 setup. Couple that with the fact that his price tag is roughly $1,000 too cheap for the role he’s playing, and Davis stands out as a must-have for cash games.
Tier 2 — Cash Game Consideration
Ezekiel Elliott ($7,800), Jerick McKinnon ($5,800), Clyde Edwards-Helaire ($6,800)
Zeke — Ezekiel Elliott is playing a Christian McCaffrey-like role and should be closer to $10k. The fact that we can get him at under $8k is honestly a shock given the role he’s playing, especially in an extremely positive game script and matchup.
The difference between the floor/ceiling combination that Zeke brings is even more glaring on a slate where we don’t have CMC, Alvin Kamara, Dalvin Cook, or Derrick Henry. He’s the only RB in the NFL who has played at least 75 percent of the offensive snaps each week, and his snap rate has been at 88 percent or higher in every game but last week’s extremely negative game script against Cleveland. The only players who projects anywhere near him from a snap rate standpoint are Mike Davis and Jerick McKinnon (if Mostert is out), and neither of them play in offenses that provide anywhere near the league-leading 77 offensive plays per game that Dallas does. The Cowboys are playing at the fastest pace in the NFL by far, and it has resulted in Zeke lapping the field when it comes to routes run. Zeke has run 145 routes this season, which has resulted in 28 targets. Both rank first among RBs on this slate, and David Johnson (112) is the only other player who has even topped 100 routes run.
Those numbers are boosted by Dallas continuing to fall behind early in games, and I wouldn’t expect Zeke to match his 9.5 targets per game mark from Weeks 3 and 4 in this spot. He should see 20-plus carries, though, as well as multiple scoring opportunities. He ranks first in the NFL with 12 carries from inside the five-yard line already this season. For reference, Todd Gurley comes in at a distant second with seven. Only 11 running backs saw more than 12 carries from inside the five over the course of the full season in 2019, and Dalvin Cook led the NFL with 21. Zeke has averaged double what the league-leader averaged in 2019, and he’s had less success finding the end zone than should be expected:
On a slate where we have pretty solid savings options at QB and WR, I see no reason why you wouldn’t do everything in your power to fit Zeke into your cash game lineup. His price really isn’t restrictive at just $7,800. He’s a lock in my opinion.
McKinnon — Raheem Mostert has put in two limited practices this week and is listed as questionable to suit up on Sunday. If he’s active, McKinnon will be a tournament only play. I’d still expect McKinnon to play somewhere between 55-70 percent of the snaps, even if Mostert plays. Kyle Shanahan is as big of a “Jet” McKinnon fan as you’ll find out there, and I’d be shocked if he limited his opportunities after how well he’s played. Among qualified RBs, McKinnon ranks fourth in PFF rushing grade and fifth in receiving grade. Shanahan going away from his guy after he’s played this well would be a real surprise.
If I had to guess, Mostert will be eased in in a game that the Niners should win easily against the Dolphins. Hopefully we’ll get more information over the weekend, but as of now, I’m projecting it to be a 60/30/10 split between McKinnon/Mostert/JWJ. That should be enough for McKinnon to see 10-15 carries and 3-7 targets. That should be plenty for McKinnon to post a strong game against Miami’s defense, especially when you consider that San Francisco is implied for over 30 points.
And if Mostert sits, McKinnon will likely play north of 80 percent of the snaps and handle roughly 20 touches and almost all of the goal line work. He’s close to a lock at $5,800 if Mostert is out.
CEH — Clyde Edwards-Helaire hasn’t yet put up the production that would qualify him for this tier, but he has seen his percentage of the team’s RB touches increase each week. And there should be a ton of RB touches available with Kansas City listed as 12 point favorites against the Raiders. Kansas City’s 33.5-point implied team total is the highest on the slate, and there’s a chance that a lot of that scoring comes on the ground while playing with a lead. CEH is tied for second in the NFL in carries from inside the five, but he has zero touchdowns to show for it. That should change in Week 5.
Tier 3 — Preferred Tournament Options
Antonio Gibson ($5,000), Kareem Hunt ($6,500), Todd Gurley ($5,700), David Johnson ($5,200)
Gibson — Antonio Gibson has been electric with the ball in his hands, and his acclimation to the NFL culminated into a 100-yard breakout performance in Week 4 against the Baltimore Ravens.
Even last week, Gibson was out-snapped by J.D. McKissic, who ran double the amount of pass routes as the rookie. It’s possible that Ron Rivera and Scott Turner will continue to ease Gibson in. It’s also possible that after last week, Gibson has shown his coaching staff all that they needed to see to entrust him with a more regular role on passing downs.
Ron Rivera said this week that Gibson “needed a preseason,” and the team is “seeing him become more confident in practice.” It’s possible that with four games now under his belt, Gibson’s ‘preseason’ phase is over. And if it is, Gibson could be about to set the Fantasy world on fire with the upcoming schedule that he faces.
To start things off, he’ll face a Rams defense that prioritizes taking away downfield passing and forces opponents to beat them on the ground or through short and intermediate passing. L.A.’s opponents have funneled anywhere from 7-10 targets to the RB position three out of four weeks, and the only game that wasn’t the case came against a Buffalo team that was last in the NFL in RB targets in 2019.
Here’s how RBs have fared against the Rams this season:
Zeke — 25 touches for 127 scrimmage yards and 2 TD
Sanders — 23 touches for 131 scrimmage yards and a TD
Singletary — 17 touches for 121 scrimmage yards
Freeman/Gallman — 21 touches for 133 scrimmage yards
Again, we don’t have any guarantee that Gibson will see even above 12-15 touches in this game, and it’s possible that Washington’s offense could fall apart entirely under Kyle Allen. There is a clear path to another strong game from the rookie, though, and he’s one of the best tournament plays on the slate at just $5k.
Hunt — Kareem Hunt surprisingly played just 35 percent of the snaps in Week 4, even with Nick Chubb leaving the game in the first quarter. This is just speculation, but I don’t think he was fully healthy for Week 4, and I think the plan was to ride Chubb and only use Hunt as needed. That plan got thrown off when Chubb went down, but Cleveland was still able to limit his reps while playing with a huge lead. The Browns seemed to be happy with how Hunt’s groin responded, and he’s been able to put in multiple limited practices this week, so there’s some reason for optimism that his role will grow in Week 5.
Still, there is definitely some risk attached to using Hunt here. There’s no guarantee that he’ll see more than 10-15 touches, and the Browns’ 23-point implied total doesn’t suggest that multiple touchdown scoring opportunities will be available for him again. Because of the uncertainty around his playing time, I’d expect Hunt’s ownership to be somewhat subdued in this spot. I’m fine taking a shot on him in tournaments, but I actually don’t think I’ll have much exposure due to questions about his playing time and the matchup/game script.
Gurley — He has been getting by almost entirely based on touchdown production, which isn’t something I want to bank on repeating going forward. However, Gurley is facing a Panthers team that has allowed the most opposing RB touchdowns in the NFL, and the Falcons are implied for 27.25 points in this spot. He could easily be a lineup buster, but there’s legitimate three touchdown upside for Gurley if he reaches the top range of his outcomes in this spot.
DJ — Duke Johnson cut into David Johnson’s usage way more than expected. After playing almost 100 percent of the snaps over the past two weeks (and 81 percent when Duke was active in Week 1), David Johnson’s snap rate dropped all the way to 55 percent in Week 4. Both of the D. Johnsons ran 15 routes, and Duke saw one more target.
Still, DJ finished with 92 scrimmage yards on 18 touches, and he could reach that type of yardage output with one or two touchdowns with Houston implied for 29.5 points against the Jags in Week 5. The price tag is super appealing, and I wouldn’t expect Johnson’s ownership to be above 10 percent. He’s a terrific tournament play, even if it feels gross locking him into your lineup.
Tier 1 — Cash Game Locks
Darius Slayton ($4,800)
Slayton — Slayton should have more Fantasy points to show for the volume he’s seen this season. The schedule has been brutal, as all four of New York’s opponents rank inside the top-eight in DVOA against the pass. That will change in Week 5, as Slayton and the Giants take on a Dallas Cowboys defense that just gave up 49 points to the Browns. Slayton brings multi-TD upside into any matchup, and he could realistically finish as the top scoring receiver on the slate if Daniel Jones is on his game in this one. We’ve seen the floor over recent weeks, but the ceiling and price tag outweigh floor concerns in a projected shootout against Dallas.
Tier 2 — Cash Game Consideration
Olamide Zaccheaus ($3,000), Robby Anderson ($5,900), Diontae Johnson ($5,600), D.J. Moore ($6,000)
Zaccheaus — He played 79 percent of the snaps with Julio Jones out in Week 3, and led all Atlanta receivers with a 76 percent snap rate last week. Zaccheaus’ nine targets led the Falcons last week, and he has a healthy 20 percent target share and 21.3 percent air yardage share over the past two weeks. I’d be shocked if Julio plays in this game, which leaves Zaccheaus likely to play nearly 80 percent of the snaps for Atlanta, who is implied for 27.25 points in a projected shootout against Carolina. At just $3k, Zaccheaus makes it easy to fit in Zeke and a stud at QB or TE. I wouldn’t expect him to go overlooked, but I’m fine siding with the chalk in cash games at this price tag.
Robby A — If just looking at the target totals, you would assume that Anderson is Carolina’s WR1. And due to the difference in the roles that the two receivers are playing, Anderson might be the more consistent option on a week-to-week basis. He’s seen at least an 18 percent target share in every game, and his 30 percent target share last week was a season-high. Anderson’s 9.1 yard average depth of target (aDOT) has allowed him to come down with a much higher percentage of his targets than Moore, and the chances of him posting a disappointing score against the Atlanta Falcons while occupying this role are quite slim. He’s underpriced for the role he has been playing, and Anderson stands out as one of the best on-paper cash game plays available in Week 5.
Diontae — The individual matchup is a bit more difficult for Johnson than JuJu Smith-Schuster in this spot, as he’ll contend with Darius Slay’s coverage on the perimeter. Slay’s coverage certainly isn’t enough to outweigh the potential volume for Johnson in this spot, though. Philly’s pass funnel defense has resulted in the third-highest opponent pass rate in neutral situations (score within six points), and we could see Pittsburgh abandon the run early if they aren’t finding success ramming James Conner into a brick wall for two yard gains over and over.
Given the ridiculous 32 percent target share and 33 percent air yard share that Diontae compiled in Pittsburgh’s first two games of the season, he could easily be looking at double digit targets if Pittsburgh goes pass-heavy against Philly. He should see enough volume to get there on catches and yardage alone, and the ceiling is there for a top-10 WR performance if Johnson finds the end zone. His price tag should be closer to $6.5-7k, given the role he’s filling for Pittsburgh.
Moore — The Falcons rank 31st in pass defense DVOA, and they’ve allowed 90-plus receiving yards to Allen Robinson, Amari Cooper, CeeDee Lamb, DK Metcalf, and Tyler Lockett already. Their starting corners are in the running for the league’s worst unit, and both D.J. Moore and Robby Anderson should have their way in this spot. Couple that with Atlanta’s nonexistent pass rush, and this seems close to a ‘can’t fail’ spot for Teddy and his pass-catchers. Moore brings more upside than Anderson in this spot and can be had for just $100 more.
Tier 3 — Preferred Tournament Options
Will Fuller ($6,600), Tyreek Hill ($6,900), Calvin Ridley ($7,500), Marquise Brown ($6,300), Tee Higgins ($4,900)
Tier 1 — Cash Game Consideration
George Kittle ($6,600), Darren Waller ($5,900), Evan Engram ($4,600)
Kittle — Kittle looked absolutely uncoverable on Sunday night. He ran a route on 46 of 49 dropbacks and saw 17 targets (39 percent target share) in his first game back from injury. Now he draws a matchup against one of the worst defenses in football, in a game that his team is implied for 30 points. He’s too cheap on both sites, but his FanDuel price tag is especially enticing. I wouldn’t expect anywhere near 17 targets, as I’d anticipate that the Niners will control this game on the ground, but still, roughly 10 targets from Kittle in this matchup is more than enough at sub-$7k.
Waller — If you can’t quite get up to Kittle, Waller is a fine consolation prize at a $700 discount. Waller played 95 percent of the snaps and led the team with 12 targets (26 percent target share) last week, and he now has seen a target share of at least 27 percent in every game that wasn’t against the Patriots. His ceiling is limited by the offense he plays in, but Waller is basically a cheat code at the ever-volatile tight end position. He could realistically see 10-15 targets if the Raiders fall behind early.
Engram — By far the most volatile option of the bunch, Evan Engram is someone I’d like to avoid in cash games if possible this week. I’m much more inclined to pay down for Slayton and Zaccheus and up for Kittle or Waller. With that said, Engram should find success in this spot.
Tier 2 — Preferred Tournament Options
Travis Kelce ($6,400), Hayden Hurst ($4,700)
Week 5 Optimal FanDuel Lineup:
*Be sure to check back for updates.*
QB — Deshaun Watson
RB — James Robinson
RB — Ezekiel Elliott
WR — Robby Anderson
WR — Will Fuller
WR — Diontae Johnson
TE — George Kittle
FLEX — Jerick McKinnon
D/ST — Steelers